Don't Fight The Fed?

Ex-Goldman Sachs CEO, Lloyd Blankfein, felt compelled to hop on Twitter yesterday to remind people of this investing platitude.

The assumption by most readers is that he is referring to being long or short the stock market. However, you would be deeply mistaken (and poor) if you followed this adage and applied it to stocks.

Take five minutes and review the Federal Reserve's actions on interest rates since 1970 to see for yourself how useless it is against stocks.

Or, just take a look at the following chart which tracks the Federal Funds Rate vs the S&P 500 and decide if it makes sense to be short stocks when the Fed is raising rates, and be long stocks when the Fed is lowering rates.

If you need any more help, you can take a look at the follow chart which shows the Fed lowering rates from 2007 - 2009 vs the VIX. 

Yes, that's right. If we apply this adage to equities you would buy stocks in Sept 2007 and keep on buying as the S&P gets cut in half and VIX spikes to 80 in late 2008. 

I don't recommend you do this.

Instead, apply this adage elsewhere. As you can see from the chart below, this rule really only applies to bonds.

When the Fed is on a tightening course (that is, they are raising rates) don't be long bonds. You need to be short bonds since their prices fall as yields rise.

When the Fed is lowering rates, don't be short bonds. You want to be long bonds since their prices rise as yields fall.

The Fed Funds rate will generally line up pretty well with the U.S. 10-year bond's yield. As of yesterday the Federal Reserve set its rates to a range of 1.75 - 2.00% vs a 10-year yield of 1.77%. At this point we probably have to assume rates at headed back to at least the 0 - 0.25% range as the Federal Reserve does everything in their power to delay the next recession.

As for what we can expect from equities there is less of a guarantee. Generally rate cuts happen just before or during a recession and equities move steeply lower. 

This provides further evidence for the setup of our Once-A-Decade Volatility Trade that we discussed last week. It is time to properly prepare your portfolio and be ready for this trade by applying smart tail-risk hedges. 

For more information don't hesitate to reach out to us via the Contact Page or visit our Subscribe Page. 

New Tool For Identifying Stocks Ready To Move Higher On A "Short Squeeze"

At Trading Volatility, our main goal is to identify major trends in the market so that people can make trades using volatility ETPs. We focus on swing trades, which means making around 20 trades per year, to achieve better performance than the overall market. We use short volatility (SVXY) and long volatility (VXX) strategies.

Now there is a new tool available for people who prefer to look at unique opportunities in individual stocks. 

Now, we have introduced a new tool for those who are interested in finding unique opportunities in individual stocks. It's called the "Gamma Exposure" (GEX) dashboard. This dashboard measures the Naive GEX of stocks by analyzing all the outstanding options contracts associated with them.

Naive GEX indicates the amount of shares that Market Makers need to buy or sell to maintain a neutral position in their trade book, based on certain assumptions. To understand the inner workings of Naive GEX, please refer to the explanation below.

 

The dashboard is updated throughout the day. I've been posting the dashboard results to twitter and to an automated email distribution list (which is currently free) for everyone to follow.

Be sure to check out all the new tools for individual stocks at http://stocks.tradingvolatility.net including Open Interest charts (Max Pain), Gamma Exposure Charts, Skew Charts, Dark Pool Interest charts, and Yearly Pivot Markers. Announcements on additional updates will be posted on this blog as these tools evolve.


Part 2:

Let's delve into the technical aspects to understand why "Gamma Exposure" (GEX) is significant:

Recent research has explored the concept of Gamma Exposure (GEX) related to the options market makers' positions.

In summary:

- Market makers play a crucial role by facilitating the buying and selling of options for traders.

- Market makers don't simply take the opposite side of investors' trades. Instead, they hedge their exposure to effectively manage their options portfolio and generate profits.

- These hedges need to be adjusted on a daily basis to maintain a neutral position as the prices of the underlying stocks fluctuate.

- In scenarios where "Gamma Exposure" gets off balance to the negative side, Market Makers must sell as prices drop and buy as prices rise, accentuating the movement in stocks. Oversold conditions result in a setup for a short squeeze, where both investors are buying oversold conditions AND Market Markets are re-hedging their positions by buying as the stock price rises. The result is a pop higher in the stock.

- Our leaderboard takes daily measurements for a fixed set of ~1,2000 stocks automatically.



What gets measured and displayed in the Dashboard:
- Our data looks at all options contracts with less than 94 days to expiration.
- "GEX(shares)" is calculated by summing gamma from calls at every strike (gamma * Open Interest * 100) and puts (gamma * Open Interest *-100).

- "GEX($) per 1% move"  is given as "Naïve GEX"   meaning that it is calculated under assumptions that Market Makers are buying calls and selling puts. 

- A stock's Call Skew influences the "Skew Adjusted GEX" (SA-GEX), which changes to reflect estimated MM exposure. A positive Call Skew is common in stocks which have outsized speculative call buying.  This is the approximation of how much stock MMs must buy/sell per 1% move in order to remain neutral in their positions.

- Positive Skew Adjusted GEX: Daily movement subdued as Market Makers re-hedge by buying as stock price falls, and adding to their short as stock price rises.

- Negative Skew Adjusted GEX: Daily movement accentuated as Market Makers re-hedge by buying as stock price rises, and adding to their short as stock price falls.

- "GEX/Volume" is the ratio for GEX (in shares) to the daily average trade volume (in shares). The more negative the GEX/Volume ratio the better the opportunity for a squeeze higher. This impact of this value is relative to the security's historical GEX levels. 

- The "Flip Point" is the level where gamma changes from positive to negative, or vice versa.
       - While above it, stock movement gets suppressed (Market Makers re-hedge by buying as stock goes lower, and selling as price moves higher).
      - When below, stock moves are accentuated (MMs re-hedge by buying as stock goes higher, and selling as prices moves lower).

The Once-A-Decade Volatility Trade

The once-a-decade moment that we as volatility traders look forward to is on the horizon and quickly approaching.

This is a significant change in the market. After all, the majority of our gains here at Trading Volatility have been made by betting on a decline in volatility by buying inverse volatility ETPs, SVXY and XIV, as can be seen in our past performance updates (2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 & 2019: see below). The easy money has been made by shorting volatility in this bull market.

The moment I'm referring to is the coming stock correction that has been set up by a a record 12-year bull market and driven volatility levels into the basement. After hitting a low of 8.56 in November 2017, the VIX has been putting in a higher base which now sits near 12.0.

At this point we need to shift gears and be ready for the big gains. I'm talking about the gains that come from being long VXX and often happen in a short period of time. As you can see in the charts below, October 2008 is the best example of what we're about to see (May 2010, Aug 2011, Aug 2015, Feb 2018, Oct 2018, and Dec 2018 are examples of "more ordinary" months with VXX trades). Most people in this market are greedy in buying stocks and now is the time to be looking at taking the other side of the trade and buying volatility. 

Many people have disregarded the warnings about the yield curve inverting as a signal for a recession. However, the reality is that the yield curve has inverted (where 3-month bonds yields are higher than 10-year bond yields) in many countries across nearly every continent in a sign of global recession.  

Dozens of Central Banks are doing their best to fight a recession and spur growth by cutting interest rates. The continuation of falling bond yields around the world, often into negative interest rate territory, signals a world of declining growth. 

Corporate Insiders are selling their stock at a pace not seen since 2007 as doubts about the sustainability of these valuations grow. 

THIS. IS. HAPPENING.

There's just one little problem though.

You can't just sell your stocks to move to cash, buy inverse ETFs or just buy VXX yet. 

Why? Because the Federal Reserve still has the confidence of investors. There are rates to cut and Quantitative Easing to promise and/or deliver, which could drive stocks higher. 

Or not. Maybe market participants get collectively concerned if the Fed sees the situation as dire enough to make big rate cuts and push liquidity into the system as they did in the 2008-2009 financial emergency?  Perhaps we come to realize that the problem is rates are already low due to the inability to raise them from the emergency levels of near 0% set 10 years ago.

Since the timing for a stock correction is difficult to predict, what you can do now is diversify. Carve out a portion of your portfolio and dedicate it to protecting your gains through a form of "tail risk" insurance using volatility. 

"Tail Risk" as most people think of it is generally a losing proposition that can be as simple as buying VXX, UVXY, or TVIX or as involved as buying rolling puts or selling calls on the S&P 500. This is quite simply, a terrible idea. It works maybe once every 10 years, but only to the extent that it would have been better to not do it all. There is a built in Negative Bias against volatility ETFs due to how they are designed -- it is precisely why VXX quickly lost 99% of its value 5 years after the time it was first launched in 2009.

Our form of Tail Risk protection is different because it is dynamically allocated:

• When there is no immediate danger we are actually short volatility and collecting premiums from all those who are continuously buying protection. It generates gains.
• Our indicators inform us each day on whether the likelihood of a spike in volatility is significant, and prompts us to move to cash or long volatility when necessary. 
• By doing this we don't spend money on portfolio hedging when it is unlikely to make money. We only hedge when necessary.  

We've been providing services for applying dynamic volatility positions using strict rule-based decision making to investors for over six years now with an average annual gain of  over 40% per year. 

Our offerings have grown and are now used by people investing small $10,000 accounts and Financial Advisory managing $100,000,000+ in assets. 

Your opportunity is to join us now because once the next volatility spike it's too late. Our gains will be made and those without hedges in place will have lost. It's that simple.

We make it as easy as we can for people to follow our strategies by sending automated signals change alerts, preliminary alerts, and daily summaries.

Check out what we offer to subscribers by viewing our Subscribe page. Considering the information you get from our service, our subscription prices are actually ridiculously cheap. And for those who are afraid of commitment, we offer day passes with full access to our site for as little as $4/day.

To learn more visit our Strategy page. You can also view all the trades that our strategies have generated over the years by looking at the spreadsheets on the Results page or links to Collective2.

Free E-book:

If you'd like to learn more about our how volatility ETFs work you can read our free e-book, Fundamental Concepts and Strategies for Trading Volatility ETPs, which is available for free download. If you are curious about how our Bias forecasts work and why they have been successful in identifying long-term trends under a variety of market conditions, be sure to give this a read. It explains the basic concepts of VIX and VIX futures as well as the main price drivers of various volatility ETPs, including the popular funds VXX, VIXY, SVXY, UVXY, ZIV, and VXZ. I believe that the concepts outlined in the e-book are critical to understand if you're going to trade these products.

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Hypothetical and Simulated Performance DisclaimerThe results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown. Hypothetical and backtest results do not account for any costs associated with trade commissions or subscription costs. Additional performance differences in backtests arise from the methodology of using the 4:00pm ET closing values for SVXY, VXX, and ZIV as approximated trade prices for indicators that require VIX and VIX futures to settle at 4:15pm ET