Intro To Using The Volatility of Volatility Index (VVIX)

Many people have some knowledge of the VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500. It provides a measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. It is widely covered by financial media and cited extensively, especially during market sell offs when it is often referred to as the "fear gauge" since it tends to spike higher as the S&P 500 moves lower. (Those new to VIX can read all about it on Investopedia).

However, not many people know about VVIX, which is the volatility index for VIX. Using similar methodology, VVIX provides a measure of the expected dispersion of the VIX over the next 30 days. 

On Sept 20th I tweeted this chart about VVIX, which identified concerns about the market. Most people, including traders who spend a great deal of time in the volatility world, pay little or no attention to VVIX. However the gauge is actually quite useful to those who take the time to study its behavior and I'll discuss a couple of entry-level points in this post.

I like to refer to VVIX as the "panic gauge" since it tends to spike to its highs as the VIX moves higher. Generally VIX and VVIX move in the same direction, but when VVIX diverges from VIX it can provide useful information about market conditions. I'll provide some examples of what to look for using the following weekly charts which show the S&P 500 (top graph), VIX (middle graph), and VVIX (bottom graph) over the past 30 months.

First note how VIX and VVIX are generally moving the opposite direction of the S&P 500. This is by no means a law and it is quite possible that all could move the same direction (that explanation will have to be a topic for another day). However it is always important to note when the indices are not moving in their typical inverse correlation manner so that the behavior can be explored.

I've circled recent S&P 500 highs (Jan 2018, Sep 2018, Apr 2019, Jul 2019, and Sept 2019) in blue and lined up the corresponding VIX and VVIX values (yellow lines). I've also used green support lines to indicate times where SPX, VIX, and VVIX are diverging from their typical behavior.

Note that at most of these times where SPX was at or near all-time-highs, VIX and VVIX were near recent lows. But the subtle difference in Sept 2019 was a VVIX at 100 is roughly 25% higher than it should have been given S&P 500 highs and a VIX of only 15.

That 25% difference in VVIX (a reading of 100 versus an 80) is not trivial and has a specific and direct impact on the price of VIX calls by nearly doubling their price. So what we had the week of September 16th were large investors showing up to pay a 90% premium for portfolio hedging via VIX calls (this premium was demanded by sellers of the VIX calls), and thus the reason for concern.

VIX spiked 40% and the S&P 500 fell nearly 5% over the following 2 weeks after I posted the VVIX chart.

Another way, VVIX can be useful in detecting tradable market bottoms. When VVIX does not confirm with higher highs while VIX moves higher, it is often a sign that panic is subsiding and large buyers are stepping in (see dashed line at Dec 2018). As VIX spiked higher to 35, VVIX diverged from its October peak of 150 and only reached a December high of 112. This was a signal that investors had already sufficiently hedged their portfolios and VIX calls were no longer in demand, i.e., the "panic" was over although "fear" was still elevated.

There are many nuances around VVIX which require close inspection. You can look specifically at the implied volatility on VIX  options to gain additional insight whether VIX is skewed to the upside or downside. This can be done by looking at your broker's option data or by looking at the data on our new (Free) Skew Charts Page. As an example, the current VIX skew looks like this. showing a high premium for upside VIX calls.

I invite you to visit the page and look at the current VIX skew or skew for any other stock with options. As always don't hesitate to Contact Us with any questions.

Don't Fight The Fed?

Ex-Goldman Sachs CEO, Lloyd Blankfein, felt compelled to hop on Twitter yesterday to remind people of this investing platitude.

The assumption by most readers is that he is referring to being long or short the stock market. However, you would be deeply mistaken (and poor) if you followed this adage and applied it to stocks.

Take five minutes and review the Federal Reserve's actions on interest rates since 1970 to see for yourself how useless it is against stocks.

Or, just take a look at the following chart which tracks the Federal Funds Rate vs the S&P 500 and decide if it makes sense to be short stocks when the Fed is raising rates, and be long stocks when the Fed is lowering rates.

If you need any more help, you can take a look at the follow chart which shows the Fed lowering rates from 2007 - 2009 vs the VIX. 

Yes, that's right. If we apply this adage to equities you would buy stocks in Sept 2007 and keep on buying as the S&P gets cut in half and VIX spikes to 80 in late 2008. 

I don't recommend you do this.

Instead, apply this adage elsewhere. As you can see from the chart below, this rule really only applies to bonds.

When the Fed is on a tightening course (that is, they are raising rates) don't be long bonds. You need to be short bonds since their prices fall as yields rise.

When the Fed is lowering rates, don't be short bonds. You want to be long bonds since their prices rise as yields fall.

The Fed Funds rate will generally line up pretty well with the U.S. 10-year bond's yield. As of yesterday the Federal Reserve set its rates to a range of 1.75 - 2.00% vs a 10-year yield of 1.77%. At this point we probably have to assume rates at headed back to at least the 0 - 0.25% range as the Federal Reserve does everything in their power to delay the next recession.

As for what we can expect from equities there is less of a guarantee. Generally rate cuts happen just before or during a recession and equities move steeply lower. 

This provides further evidence for the setup of our Once-A-Decade Volatility Trade that we discussed last week. It is time to properly prepare your portfolio and be ready for this trade by applying smart tail-risk hedges. 

For more information don't hesitate to reach out to us via the Contact Page or visit our Subscribe Page. 

Professional Volatility Strategies

Six years ago on this blog I wrote "XIV: When A "Sure Thing" Goes Bad, highlighting that the key drivers of Volatility ETPs are 1) the change in price of the relevant VIX futures contracts and 2) the term structure. While XIV no longer exists after last year's blow up, the message is still relevant to XIV's reduced leverage replacement, SVXY. In fact, an alternate title for this post could be "When a "Sure Thing" Goes Bad -- SVXY Edition"

Similar to XIV, SVXY is a fund that can be used as a play when an investor believes that volatility will decline. Although SVXY has only half the leverage that XIV had (-0.5x vs -1x), it can still produce strong gains and losses.

Below is a chart of the price of SVXY calculated as if it had the -0.5x leverage since 2004 (prices prior to the fund's official leverage reduction have been constructed by calculating the index value using 1st and 2nd month VIX futures data).

I've highlighted most of the larger price drops to help illustrate that SVXY is not a buy-and-hold security, even in its reduced leverage form. When the market structure changed in 2007 & 2008, SVXY still lost 70% of its value due to strong backwardation in VIX Futures.

As long-time readers know, the term structure of VIX futures is what drives various VIX funds, including SVXY, VXXB, UVXY, TVIX, VIXY, VIIX, and ZIV.

SVXY performs best in years where there is a strong and persistent contango, the condition where VIX is lower than VIX futures. The best way to measure the degree of contango for these products is to look at the weighted value of first and second month VIX futures as compared to spot VIX. Below is a graph of the weighted VIX futures values to spot VIX over the past 11 years.

The trendline here provides a way to filter out the daily noise and allows us to verify that the years in which SVXY performed the best experienced the largest and most persistent contango. On the flip side, the time frames that SVXY performed badly experienced backwardation and/or a small contango.

The fact that the term structure is such a strong driver of VIX ETPs is why professionals track this data closely. We track VIX Futures data and associated metrics shown on our website and use information from the term structure, price momentum, historical volatility, and the volatility of the VIX as inputs to our automated algorithms for buying and selling. The algorithm values are then used to trigger automated buying and selling of VIX ETPs and are emailed to subscribers. We track this data intraday as well and post it to both our Intraday Indicators page as well as our Daily Forecast page.

Our results (as tracked by a third party) substantially beat the S&P 500 over the long term. A screenshot of the VXX Bias and VRP+VXX Bias since we began tracking them on Collective2 are shown below:


VXX Bias:

VRP+VXX Bias ("Trading Volatility 1"):

Over the long term our approach can do well in both bull and bear markets, as seen in by our hypothetical backtest summary.

Clearly not all years are huge winners but the data shows that the use of the term structure data tends to be extremely valuable. If you are interested in checking out what we offer to subscribers you can view our Subscribe page.

One more note: We made a change to our VRP indicator in January 2019 so that it can now be used as a standalone strategy. As such, I am now having Collective2 track that as well. It can be found under Enhanced VRP.


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Hypothetical and Simulated Performance Disclaimer
The results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown. Backtest results do not account for any costs associated with trade commissions or subscription costs.  Additional performance differences in backtests arise from the methodology of using the 4:00pm ET closing values for SVXY,  VXXB, and ZIV as approximated trade prices for indicators that require VIX and VIX futures to settle at 4:15pm ET.

A Visualization of VIX Implied S&P 500 Movement

U.S. Equities have taken a hit in the first four weeks of October with the S&P 500 declining as much as -9%. The VIX has risen ~108% this month up to 25.23 as of the close yesterday.

As we have noted previously, a VIX of 25 seems a bit low given the magnitude of the daily movements. Below you can see daily S&P 500 returns and their corresponding VIX values on the big sell-off days 10/10/18 (-3.3%) and 10/24/18 (-3.1%).

Based on this historical data, we could reasonably expect VIX to be trading in the 30-45 range. However, the market is apparently not expecting large rallies over the next month.

Recall that the VIX is an expression of expected annualized market volatility over the next 30 days.  A VIX of 25 means annualized move (up or down) of 25%. That value can be converted to monthly terms by dividing by the square root of 12, which yields an expected dispersion of the S&P 500 of 7.2%, or an implied range of 2463-2848.

We can convert that to a weekly and daily basis as well (divide by the square root of 52) to get a weekly dispersion of 3.5%, giving an implied range of 2558 to 2748 from yesterday's close. Interestingly, the 1-week dispersion target for $SPX based on $VIX after Oct 11th was 2820 (it came as high as 2817).

So perhaps $VIX isn't "too low" based on the magnitude of moves. Instead, it's more that investors don't expect a swift rally. Charting out the implied dispersion we can visualize the market's short-term expectations:

We can expect VIX to adjust accordingly as S&P 500 rises and falls. I'll provide updates within the Twitter thread on the subject.

Have You Become Part of the Buy-and-Hold Equity Herd?

What is your investing game plan?

Has the S&P 500's longest bull market in history, with its 336% gain, finally converted you to become a part of the buy-and-hold equity herd?

Do you think the U.S. equity market is now immune from the carnage we've seen recently in Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging Market Index is now off 20% from the January highs)? Have you cast aside the idea of a balanced investment portfolio?

You probably don't want to even think about it, but this bull market will not last forever.¹ There will be an equity bear market here in the U.S. Non-diversified investors risk facing losses similar to that of the 2000 dot com bust and the 2008 financial crisis. The trap is that we don't know when. Any perma-bears left are still taking on losses, ineptly sitting in cash, or getting crushed by cryptocurrencies.

I personally like an aggressive Modern Portfolio Theory portfolio with a heavy weighting on equities -- but with one important modification. I like to carve out a small portion of my portfolio and allocate it to process-driven volatility trading which is long volatility at times and short volatility at other times.

This is the concept of including volatility as an asset and there are right and wrong ways to do it.

 - Wrong way #1: Buy-and hold a short volatility ETP.
XIV, which was the short volatility ETP of choice, suffered a catastrophic hit in February 2018 and investors lost hundreds of millions of dollars. Prior to going bust, XIV was the "can't lose" fund that returned over 10x since inception in 2010. Many people lost nearly all of their investment and various professional money managers were fired because they didn't know what they were doing and ignored the trouble signs of the underlying assets (VIX Futures). The calamity was so bad, that some brokers banned the purchase of short volatility ETPs to try to protect the average investor (a bit late for that, don't you think??).

- Wrong way #2: Buy-and-hold a long volatility ETP.
If buy-and-hold of the short side of volatility is wrong, then it must be better to buy-and-hold long volatility ETPs, such as VXX? No. VXX and the 2x leveraged UVXY & TVIX ETPs suffer long term decay thanks largely due to the fact that these funds track VIX Futures that are most often in a state of contango. Without getting technical, it should be sufficient to point out that VXX has gone from over $100,000 (adjusted for multiple reverse splits) to $27 over the course of its lifespan since inception 9 years ago.

- The Right Way #1: Our VRP+VXX Bias indicators.
Our volatility indicators put us in cash, long volatility, or short volatility based on daily measurements of various components within the volatility market in order to provides us with a "flexible" fifth asset (the others being equities, bonds, real estate, and commodities). To take diversification one step further, our volatility trading indicators are comprised of multiple unrelated component indicators. No single indicator is perfect and ours are no exception. When they don't agree on what to do we move our volatility allocation to cash (this by the way, is how we survived the February volatility market imploded).

One really nice aspect of our VRP+VXX Bias algorithms, in addition to being fully automated, is that they get us invested in an asset that is non-correlated with other assets. This is key to good diversification within a portfolio. Why? Because if you are diversifying using an asset that has high correlation to another invested asset, you are diversifying in name only while both assets carry roughly the same performance.

The flip side of the non-correlated asset coin, however, is the fact that there will be times when our indicators lag the market. 2018 has been pitiful so far and this can be frustrating if you are not looking at the big picture. And that is, a properly diversified and properly balanced portfolio will excel long term.

At any given time there will be a lagging asset within a diversified portfolio. Smart investors don't just scrap an asset class after a bad month/year -- they rebalance and focus on their process knowing that the next year is likely to result in an entirely different outcome. Otherwise, the investor is left with a portfolio that carries less diversification, greater risk, and a lower long-term return potential.


Our indicator's performance speaks for itself with actual automated signals and trades tracked by a third party since 2016, Collective2, here:

Looking further back using our modeling, we can see how VRP+VXX Bias ("Trading Volatility 1" performs in a variety of market conditions. By far, the best performing years for our indicators are when strong equity drawdowns occur, as can be seen in the chart below.

Trading Volatility+ subscribers have access to our VRP and VXX Bias indicators, our intraday indicator data, receive emails with preliminary and final change alerts for each of the indicators as well as our daily summaries, and interact with our private community of volatility traders in the forum. If interested, you can learn more about our services on our Subscribe page.

As always, each day's indicator values, buy/sell triggers, trade performance summary, and equity curves are tracked in the spreadsheets linked at the bottom of our Subscribe page. Additional information on our trading strategy and indicators can be found on our Strategy page.


Our indicators are also utilized by a volatility investment fund that is open only to accredited investors. If you think a managed volatility fund might better fit your needs please send a message through the Contact page.


Footnotes:
¹ Smart people like to pretend they know why this bull market will end: the end of fiscal stimulus, rising interest rates, inflation, deflation, stagflation, global recession contagion, too much debt, high P/E ratios, trade wars, etc. No one knows the why or when and the average investor is unlikely to guess the when, and how it plays out, and be able to invest appropriately.

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Hypothetical and Simulated Performance Disclaimer
The results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown. Hypothetical and backtest results do not account for any costs associated with trade commissions or subscription costs. Additional performance differences in backtests arise from the methodology of using the 4:00pm ET closing values for SVXY, VXX, and ZIV as approximated trade prices for indicators that require VIX and VIX futures to settle at 4:15pm ET

A Note on Corrective Distributions for VXUP & VXDN

I've outlined the basic operation of AccuShare's new VXUP and VXDN funds in this post (as they are designed, but not how they'll actually be able to operate). However I did not go into sufficient detail on the topic of Corrective Distributions.

Before I get into that though, I'll mention that AccuShares has already told us that VXUP and VXDN are intended only for sophisticated professional and institutional investors. If you're not in that category you will likely find the following information less useful since you won't be trading these products.

Corrective Distributions are used to help keep the funds trading near their NAV (Net Asset Value). In my previous post outlining the Fatal Flaws of VXUP & VXDN, I explained why it will be common for these funds to trade at a premium or discount to NAV. In fact, as of Friday, VXUP is already trading at a 19% premium to NAV while VXDN is trading at a 17% discount to NAV. Recall that if the closing trading prices deviate from their NAV by 10% over three consecutive business days, the Fund will make a Corrective Distribution on the next scheduled Regular Distribution Date or Special Distribution Date (note: this rule goes into effect only after 90 days since the fund's inception has passed). 

Here's what happens during a Corrective Distribution:

• First, the Regular or Special Distribution takes place (as outlined in my first post on the topic). 
• Next, each remaining share will be resolved into a risk neutral position comprised of an equal number of Up Shares and Down Shares, based on the share NAV. 

The key item here is that the value is based on NAV, not the market trading price. Therefore, holders of a security that trades at a premium to NAV will take a loss equal to the amount of the premium on Distribution Day. Likewise, holders of a security that trades at a discount to NAV will see a gain equal to the amount of the premium. 

A Corrective Distribution trigger should help close the gap to NAV in advance of the next Distribution Day so that no such "easy money" can be made/lost. Even the threat of a Corrective Distribution trigger (trading at >10% NAV on the third day) could bring about swift moves towards NAV for each of the funds as traders move to close out positions while the premium to NAV is still double digit percentages, or rush to get into positions that are trading at a large discount to NAV. This pressure may even be enough to prevent the completion of a Corrective Distribution trigger on the second or third day of a threat, resulting in wild daily price action.

After a Corrective Distribution Day I expect the funds to immediately diverge from NAV once again. If the VIX futures term structure is sufficiently steep, the funds will face a threat of a Corrective Distribution trigger again for the following month. This will make it important to constantly keep an eye on the market prices versus NAV and factor these potential events into your trading strategy.

The Fatal Flaws of VXUP and VXDN

Today's post is a follow up to last week's post, "Details on New VIX ETFs: How VXUP and VXDN Work." In hindsight, the title should have included the words "in theory" because the reality of how these funds work is drastically different. The funds are subject to strong arbitrage pressures from VIX futures and will constantly be trading at a premium or discount to the funds' theoretical price, known as Net Asset Value, or NAV (also sometimes referred to as the fund's "Intrinsic Value").

In real trading, the major problem with the concept of these new funds is the presence of a VIX futures term structure that can range +/-20% at times. When AccuShares announced the launch of an ETF that tracks spot VIX, everyone immediately looked forward to getting in on the arbitrage trade to be long VIX and short front month VIX futures during contango. After all, spot VIX and futures converge each month and this trade is essentially free money. The reason for the price difference between spot VIX and futures stems from the principle that VIX is mean reverting. This generally keeps the price of VIX futures higher than spot VIX when VIX is lower than ~20 (the long term average) and VIX futures lower than VIX when VIX is above ~20.

We saw this arbitrage gap close quickly in the first day of trading of VXUP and VXDN. VIX was +0.94% on May 19, while $VXUP was +10.56% and $VXDN was -10.56%. That's not at all tracking towards spot VIX. That is adjusting toward June VIX futures. Such behaviour to price in known information can be expected in a free market when there are obvious pricing discrepancies in what are essentially identical products.

June VIX futures settle on June 17, which is only two days away from the VXUP/VXDN Distribution Day on June 15. Given that the objective of VXUP & VXDN is to track the monthly change in spot VIX (plus an adjustment for the "Daily Amount"), the funds immediately move toward the expected value of VIX on June 15 -- the fair value of which is already agreed upon by market participants by the price of June VIX futures.

There is nothing unique to the month of June that causes these funds to suddenly track at a wide premium and discount to NAV. In fact, the funds will stray from NAV on almost every day in order to account for the value of VIX futures. Generally, the stronger the degree of contango or backwardation the larger the premium or discount to NAV.

It seems that AccuShares (the funds' sponsor) understands these forces, hence the reason for an arbitrary 0.15% "Daily Amount" which is subtracted from VXUP and added to VXDN when VIX is below 30 (another arbitrary threshold). This 4.5% roll yield that was built into the fund operation attempts to mitigate the effects of the contango roll yield. When the VIX futures curve is greater than a 4.5% contango, the only logical purchase is VXUP, leaving no one to buy VXDN.

Using yesterday as an example, an investor looking for protection can either buy June VIX futures at 14.85, or purchase VXUP at a price reflecting a spot VIX of 12.73. If VIX rises to 14.85 by June 17th, the buyer of VIX futures broke even while the purchaser of VXUP gained 11.2% (15.7% minus the Daily Amount of 4.5%). Arbitrageurs are well aware of this and will keep the price of VXUP and VXDN away from their NAV in an amount that reflects the degree of contango or backwardation in VIX futures. VXUP and VXDN will trade at values which close the arbitrage gap, not at NAV.

Today is May 20 and is the second day that VXUP and VXDN have traded. As of yesterday VXUP traded at a 9.69% premium to NAV (which can be tracked here). Today that premium is over 10%. Given that a "Corrective Distribution" is triggered whenever the funds are at a premium/discount of over 10% for three consecutive days it is possible that we'll see triggers often. However, a Corrective Distribution trigger only helps to bring the NAV premium closer to zero as Distribution Day approaches. This does not keep the funds trading near NAV after Distribution Day since the arbitrage gap to VIX futures does not go away.

I had previously thought that the premium/discount to NAV might diminish as the next Distribution Date approached, but it is clear now that if that were the case there would be an immediate and large gap on the following morning, just as we saw on the first day of trading in VXUP and VXDN yesterday. Instead, I expect the premium or discount to be persistently present, depending on the degree of contango or backwardation in VIX futures.

I don't expect the daily movement of these products to track as advertised. I also expect Corrective Distributions to be common as the funds stray 10% away from NAV. This will make the predictability of these funds incredibly difficult for anyone who has not built an arbitrage model.

When it comes down to it, one phrase at the top of the fund's Factsheet sums it up best: "shares of the Fund are intended for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors."

Details on New VIX ETFs: How VXUP and VXDN Work

Edit 5/21/2015: A follow up article, "The Fatal Flaws of VXUP and VXDN" has been posted.
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On Tuesday next week we will see a new pair of VIX ETFs hit the market: VXUP and VXDN from AccuShares Management. Unlike existing VIX ETPs which move based on VIX futures, these new ETFs will move based on the price of spot VIX.

However, the operation of these funds is not as straight forward as one might expect. I've gone through the 150 page prospectus and have briefly outlined what you can expect from these new products (the full prospectus is available here for those interested in additional details).

Summary

• The Up Class Shares (VXUP) and Down Class Shares (VXDN) are designed to track changes in the price volatility of the S&P 500® Index on a monthly basis.
• The Underlying Index of the Fund is the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
• Investors who expect the VIX Index to increase should consider purchasing Up Class Shares (VXUP)
• Investors who expect the VIX Index to decrease should consider purchasing the Down Clas: s Shares (VXDN).

Basic Fund Operation

• The operation of the funds centers on "Distribution Periods" which are marked by "Distribution Dates" (the 15th of each month).
• The primary change in value of the funds is based on the "Share Index Factor", which is reset on each Distribution Date. The Share Index Factor defines how much VXUP and VXDN move for every VIX movement.  
• --> Example: If VXUP is $25 (after distribution) on the Distribution Date, and VIX is at 20, each 1 point (5%) move in VIX is worth $1.25 (5%) to VXUP for the next month.
• Additionally, when the VIX is 30 or less, a "Daily Amount" of 0.15% ($0.0375 in this example) will be deducted from VXUP per day and will be added to VXDN.

Distributions
A primary concept of the funds are periodic Distributions. These will be predominantly done in cash for the first six months, but will be in the form of issuing paired shares of VXUP and VXDN thereafter (depending on the fund's liquidity). Here are the Distribution types:

1. Regular Distributions: Occur on the 15th of each month (the "Distribution Date").
• VXUP will be entitled to a distribution when the VIX has increased between Regular Distributions, or by 75% (“Special Distributions”).
• VXDN will be entitled to a distribution when the VIX has decreased between Regular Distributions, or by 75% (“Special Distributions”).
• --> Exception: Both share classes subject to a maximum of 90% in either direction for a single Measuring period.
2. Special Distributions: Occurs if change in VIX is +/-75% since last Distribution Date. The Shared Index Factor is also reset.
3. Corrective Distributions: Following the expiration of 90 calendar days following the inception of the Fund’s operations, if the closing trading prices of the shares of the Fund deviate from their Class Value per Share by ten percent over three consecutive business days, the Fund will make a Corrective Distribution in addition to a Regular Distribution or Special Distribution on the next scheduled Regular Distribution Date or Special Distribution Date if previously triggered.
4. Other distributions may result from reverse share splits.

Any distributions of cash, or cash and shares, will reduce your exposure and opportunity for gains arising from changes in the Fund’s Underlying Index in subsequent periods. You will need to rebalance/buy additional shares to maintain desired exposure. This concept will be made clear in the example below.

Price Movement Examples:
VXUP will often face a headwind caused by the "Daily Amount" of 0.15%. The table below summarizes the value of VXUP and VXDN for various VIX scenarios after a Measuring Period. Note that when the VIX is +4.5%, the gains in VXUP are offset by the losses from the Daily Amount (since 0.15*30 = 4.5).

In the next table, the VIX is assumed to have moved up 10% from 20 to 22 over 30 days. At the Distribution Date, the result is a 5.5% increase for VXUP and a 5.5% decrease for VXDN based on the combination of the VIX movement and the $0.0375 Daily Amount.

Note that the Fund will distribute a cash amount of $2,750.00 per 1,000 shares of VXUP. The new per share value for each fund is then set at $23.6250.

If instead there is a 10% decrease in VIX from 20 to 18 over 30 days we will have the following:

Here, VXUP will return -14.5% and VXDN will return a total of +14.5% based on both change in the VIX and the effects of the Daily Amount.

It is critical to note that after each favorable movement in a security held, your exposure is reduced due to distributions. In the case of issuing paired shares in lieu of cash, your exposure is still reduced and you would need to sell/buy shares as necessary to maintain a desired exposure.


It is worth highlighting that the Daily Amount only exists when VIX is below 30. When above 30 it is zero so the VXUP headwind goes away.


Supply & Demand and the Arbitrage Mechanism for creation/redemption of share units

• As the Fund’s shares trade intraday, their market prices will fluctuate due to simple supply and demand. 
• An arbitrage mechanism helps to minimize the difference between the trading price of a share of the Fund and its Class Value per Share. Over time, these buying and selling pressures should balance out, and a share’s market trading price is expected to remain at a level close to its Class Value per Share. The arbitrage mechanism provided by the creation and redemption process is designed, and required, in order to maintain the relationship between the market trading price of shares and their Class Values per Share between Distribution Dates.

The facts outlined above cover the basics of these new funds. There are many other additional details and nuances covered in the prospectus which I encourage you to read through if you are considering trading these products.

Bonus: Below I've included some additional risk factors contained within the prospectus that I found to be of interest.

• By purchasing VXUP, investors should have an expectation that the Underlying Index will increase during the period between Distribution Dates. If the VIX decreases during the time between Distribution Dates, investors in VXUP will experience a significant loss and could lose their entire investment.

• The Fund’s Eligible Assets are not managed to provide a maximum long-term return and even a share class experiencing a favorable Underlying Index change can experience losses if the Fund’s aggregate Class Values decline significantly. If the Fund’s aggregate Class Values decline to zero, the Fund’s Up Shares and Down Shares will lose all value, causing a total loss to all Fund investors.

• The Sponsor Has No Experience Managing Investment Vehicles. The Sponsor is recently formed, and has not previously managed any investment vehicles. There can be no assurance that the past experience of the Sponsor’s management team will be sufficient to successfully operate the Fund.

Our Indicator Performance +56% YTD Through April

April was a great month for inverse volatility ETFs and XIV in particular as it gained nearly 16% over the month to settle at +29% YTD. The trend was generally strong and without drama this month although it did give back some gains in the last week. XIV's one-month chart:

Our daily indicators rode this wave of gains throughout the month on only one trade, with the VXX Bias generating an XIV buy signal on 3-20-15 and our VRP indicator signalling a buy for XIV on 4-1-15.

This month's gains added to already impressive year-to-date returns for our indicators. Indicator performance through April:
-  VXX Bias: +51%,
-  VRP: +48%
-  VRP+VXX Bias: 56%.

The equity curves for each strategy with comparison to XIV are shown in the following graph (the S&P 500 is +1.4% YTD and is not shown):

Trade statistics for each strategy are summarized as follows:

For those interested in additional detail, the daily history of indicator values that have been emailed to subscribers in 2015 can be found in the data sheet links below:
- VXX Bias: 2015
- VRP: 2015
- VRP+VXX Bias: 2015


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Hypothetical and Simulated Performance Disclaimer
The results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown. Additional performance differences in backtests arise from the methodology of using the 4:00pm ET closing values for XIV, VXX, and ZIV as approximated trade prices for indicators that require VIX and VIX futures to settle at 4:15pm ET.

Our VRP+VXX Bias Indicator +35% in 1st Quarter

The first quarter of 2015 has come to a close and investors everywhere are reviewing their performance. This is the perfect time to evaluate the effectiveness of your investment strategies and to make adjustments accordingly.

Our VXX Bias and VRP indicators have both navigated the first quarter quite well, at +31% and +29% YTD, respectively. These two indicators each provide end-of-day signals for placing swing trades in XIV and VXX (if you're not already familiar with our trading strategies you can learn more about them here). 

Our preferred strategy, VRP + VXX Bias, combines the two signals to place trades only when they agree on direction and is +35% YTD.

The graph below tracks the daily values for each of our indicators as well as XIV (buy-and-hold) as a comparison reference point (the usual investment benchmark, the S&P 500, is not included because it is an irrelevant +0.9% YTD).

We kept commission fees low by placing only a half dozen trades in the first quarter. Trade statistics for each strategy are summarized as follows**:

If you're not quite meeting your investment objectives this year perhaps we can help. For less than $3 per day we provide subscribers access to all of our VIX data & metrics, our indicators, automated Bias change alerts, and the members' forum.


--> New in 2015, we will be providing an additional level of visibility into our trading by having our performance verified by a third party (Marketfy). We recently tweeted our YTD portfolio performance of +17.8%, which was obtained by using the VRP+VXX Bias strategy as our guide. Look for additional updates on real-time notifications of our trades in the future.

**For those interested in additional detail, the daily history of indicator values that have been emailed to subscribers in 2015 can be found in the data sheet links below:
- VXX Bias: 2015
- VRP: 2015
- VRP+VXX Bias: 2015

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Hypothetical and Simulated Performance Disclaimer
The results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown. Additional performance differences in backtests arise from the methodology of using the 4:00pm ET closing values for XIV, VXX, and ZIV as approximated trade prices for indicators that require VIX and VIX futures to settle at 4:15pm ET.

2015 CBOE Risk Management Conference - Attendees get 30% off Subscription to Trading Volatility+

CBOE's Risk Management Conference is the premier educational forum for users of volatility products and equity derivatives. It is *the* conference for financial professionals to attend to learn the latest risk management tools and tactics from top traders and strategists. 

The next CBOE Risk Management Conference is scheduled for March 4-6 in Carlsbad, California. The agenda is now set with talks from over two dozen industry experts, exploring the latest products, trading strategies and tactics used to manage risk exposure and enhance yields. The full agenda is available here.

As an added bonus, attendees at the March 4-6, 2015 session are able to get a 30% discount* on their first three months of a Trading Volatility+ subscription. 

Our Trading Volatility+ service provides access to:

• Our full suite of volatility metrics and indicators to bring you valuable insight into the movement of VIX ETPs, 
• Our strategies, which utilize variations on widely-used trading indicators (such as Volatility Risk Premium) as well as our own proprietary algorithms (VXX Bias^TM and ZIV Bias^TM),
• Our automated alerts which notify subscribers whenever one of our indicators experiences a critical change in direction, making the strategies easy to follow,
• Our members' forum where you can interact and share ideas with other volatility traders. 

The unique characteristics and profit potential of VIX futures led to the fifth consecutive annual trading volume record in 2014. 2015 is already looking to break that record again as interest in volatility as a tradable asset continues to grow. If you're still shying away from this well-kept secret of sophisticated investors, now is is the time to learn more. A good place to start is with our concise (and FREE!) e-book, Fundamental Concepts and Strategies for Trading Volatility ETPs.

*Discount available only to new subscribers. The discount will be refunded to subscribers after providing proof of event attendance.

Volatility Strategies - Separating Fact From Fiction

Earlier this year I came across the website Volatility Made Simple. Much like our goal at Trading Volatility, Volatility Made Simple's goal is to help less informed investors understand and take advantage volatility ETPs in a manner that is similar to how large institutions trade volatility.

What is really great about Volatility Made Simple, is that at the end of each month the performance of various volatility trading strategies is recorded. As of the November update there were twenty different strategies on the list, and according to him, they represent the vast majority of volatility trading strategies of traders timing these products.

Below is his image which illustrates the November performance of strategies compared to XIV buy-and-hold.

The other nice thing is that he will occasionally write posts which independently examine each strategy in depth, identifying the exact trading rules and performing backtests to 2004 to see how they perform under a variety of conditions. This is useful to make sure that a strategy is not just optimized for ideal markets but can also perform well in more turbulent environments. In addition he also provides statistics such as percent winning/losing trades, average trade return, and sometimes the max drawdown percentage and Sharpe ratios. Below I will post several of the charts from his site.

It gets interesting looking at the ten year returns of these strategies. Looking at VIX & More's (by Bill Luby) VIX:VXV ratio strategy, we can see that a portfolio of $10,000 in 2004 grows to a portfolio of over $1,200,000 by February 2014 when following these rules. Chart below:

From $10,000 to $1,200,000 -- that's a a 12,000% return in 10 years! That's remarkably impressive.

A similar strategy offered by Market Sci, the Mean Reversion Strategy, takes our portfolio of $10,000 in 2004 grows to a portfolio of over $1,200,000 as well, although it takes a slightly different path to get there. Chart for Market Sci's below:

Then there is Trading the Odds's Volatility Risk Premium strategy which boasts growth of $10,000 to over $5,000,000 (50,000% gain) over the same time frame, beating Market Sci's returns by a factor of five:

And if that return isn't enough, there's the Optimized VRP Strategy, which fine-tunes backtested performance to turn a portfolio of $10,000 to over $10,000,000 in 10 years. This strategy is achieved with an average of just eight trades per year. Chart below:

Wow. So should we be issuing a scam alert? A 100,000% return over 10 years?!? GET REAL!! Too good to be true, right?

Except that these strategies are all valid. The average investor who just buys index ETFs or scours the stock market looking for the hottest stocks in a struggle to outperform the S&P 500 (or just break even) will completely dismiss these returns as impossible. But for me, VIX and More, Market Sci, Trading The Odds, Volatility Made Simple, and all the other people who have developed one of these volatility strategies, these returns are real (Note: None of these people are aware that I'm writing this, they have no connection with the Trading Volatility site, and do not necessarily agree with or endorse anything I'm writing). 

How do I know that these ridiculous returns are likely to be legit without independently verifying them for myself? Because our VXX Bias strategy is right in the ballpark with the leaders (performance summary for our VXX Bias strategy can be found here).

When you look at the return over the entire period it seems astronomical. But actually this just demonstrates the power of compound interest. A portfolio of $10,000 that grows at 90% per year over 10 years is worth $6,131,066.26, which is roughly what the best strategies return. The trick is being able to average 90% per year while avoiding major drawdowns.

When I tell people about my strategy and the returns that can be achieved, everyone skeptically asks, "Why aren't other people doing this?" The answer is "THEY ARE!" 

Volatility Made Simple tracks a handful of strategies that have been made public. From what I can tell, and as VMS points out, most of the strategies apply similar concepts. Each strategy has its own strengths and weaknesses and many struggle through the same conditions. Because of certain optimizations, some strategies manage to excel over shorter time frames under certain conditions. However, over the years it's easier to see the order of magnitude of difference among the different strategies. I'd argue that a blend of two or three of the top strategies would be the best way to reduce variation in returns, however this may not be cost-effective for smaller accounts.

There are many other confidential volatility strategies out there. They belong to the smart money managers and institutions who are making money hand over fist. And the best part is that it doesn't matter if it is a bull or bear market. 2008 financial crisis? Not a problem -- in fact, a good strategy flips to buy volatility to take advantage of a steep market decline.

The fact is, volatility ETPs are generally giant scams designed to separate unknowing investors from their money. VXX and UVXY are obviously horrible over the long term but can go up 10x in a matter of months. Inverse volatility (XIV) looks good most of the time but is prone to 80%+ drawdowns that can wipe you out. People who understand how these products work can exploit their flaws to generate giant returns. 

For people trading volatility ETPs at a loss or barely getting by, you have a problem. Given the amount of free and paid resources out there, there's no excuse for this. Here are some things you may want to consider:

1) Find a signal-based trading plan that matches your style and fits in with your financial objectives. Make sure the strategy has signals that make it easy for you to follow.

2) Strictly trade based on hard rules. This will allow you to avoid making emotional decisions and fighting the trend, and will maximize long-term results.

3) Understand that day-to-day, week-to week, and month-to-month performance can result short-term negative returns. Don't lose focus of the long term.

4) You will have losing trades. This is why we focus on process and probabilities, not short-term outcomes. What matters is the process and patience.

5) If you are not able to follow rules, don't trade. Sorry to say, but if you can't find the discipline you don't get the profits (and you probably shouldn't be trading at all).


(It also helps to understand how VIX ETPs work. For an overview you can read my free eBook, Fundamental Concepts and Strategies for Trading Volatility ETPs.)

Most of the strategies on VMS's summary are similar in that they assess market conditions at the end of each trading day to determine if a buy or sell is necessary. They are also similar in the number of trades per year, typically between 7 and 30, making these strategies fairly manageable swing trades which do not require the investor to be glued to a trading screen all day.

When it comes down to it, I don't really care which strategy you choose as long as you are successful. It's just time to stop being one of the many unfortunate who are on the wrong side of the trade.

If you'd like more information on the Trading Volatility Bias strategy please visit this link. Our Bias indicators are automatically emailed at the end of each trading day and our Bias change alerts notify subscribers whenever the Bias changes direction, making it easy to follow. Our subscriber services are available for less than $3 per day making it very affordable.

You can also take advantage of our free VIX Futures Data pages as well as our SPY Arbitrage and Pivot Point tools. And if you have any questions at all, feel free to reach out to me via the Contact page.




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Hypothetical and Simulated Performance Disclaimer
The results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown. Additional performance differences in backtests arise from the methodology of using the 4:00pm ET closing values for XIV, VXX, and ZIV as approximated trade prices for indicators that require VIX and VIX futures to settle at 4:15pm ET.

Link to Recording of Webinar with Bob Lang and Jay Wolberg

I was invited to join Bob Lang (options trading mentor at http://explosiveoptions.net, contributor to http://thestreet.com, and one of Jim Cramer's go-to technical experts on Mad Money) in a webinar yesterday. The recorded video has been posted online for anyone interested.

We had a great conversation, covering a wide variety of topics in 80 minutes. To help you find topics of interest, I've outlined our discussion along with approximate minute marks.

- Show intro (0:00)

- Bob's current market analysis (1:50)

- Into of Jay (10:15)

- Overview of Volatility (13:25)

- Role of actual market volatility in pricing of forward looking volatility (VIX) (17:18)

- What happens during  recent, brief VIX spikes which quickly revert; impact of QE (24:00)

- Common misconceptions of VXX (30:28)

- Reasons for large blocks of VIX calls (36:15)

- Reason why actual volatility may be higher than implied volatility (39:40)

- Reasons for a rising VIX while the market is rising (41.45)

- Likelihood of seeing a VIX in the 90s again (45:00)

- Reasons for current low VIX regime (47:50)

- Recent pattern of buying XIV on dips and likelihood of continuation of this pattern (51:05)

- Letting data guide trading decisions (53:25)

- XIV technical analysis -- importance of 200-day moving average (54:40)

- XIV indicators (57:30)

- Possibility of rally in XIV in today's market & levels to watch for Friday (1:00:10)

- Do VIX levels have influence on whether equities go up or down (1:02:00)

- Preparing for Black Swan events (1:03:45)

- Current decision making for trading XIV in market Friday (1:08:00)

- Signals for start of new rally in XIV (1:10:30)

- Why Thursday's move in XIV was an indicator that VIX was overbid (1:11:45)

- Tour of free resources at http://tradingvolatility.net (1:14:00)


If you are interested in learning more about trading options from a technical expert, check out Bob's website at http://explosiveoptions.net/ and follow him on Twitter at @aztecs99.