Weekly Wrap and the Week Ahead

A slow and steady week in VIX futures brought down all points along the curve with some additional emphasis on the front two months. Overall the term structure remains somewhat compressed, with just 4.7 points separating 1st and 7th month. 

There was a slight divergence in correlation between XIV and SPY today as we closed at new SPX highs - a signal for some caution in both XIV and SPX longs. From the intraday SPY arbitrage model:

Treasuries and high yield corporate bonds diverged  from SPY during the week as well, widening the gap on the daily SPY arbitrage model, with SPY trading at a $5.00 premium to the model:

And yet there's no reason VIX can't head lower given that actual volatility over the past 3 months (HV63) is just 10.8.

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